Weekly Consumers Sentiment Indices

The weekly Consumer Sentiment Indices are computed at India level and for urban and for rural India. The survey design for estimation of weekly Indices for India is based on the existence of 2 strata. The population is stratified at the level of rural and urban regions.
In computing the Consumer Sentiment Indices for a week, we consider all the households that were surveyed in that week and were accepted by an independent validation system in that week. Both the conditions must be met for a household to be included in the calculation of weekly Indices. Households that are surveyed in a week but are not accepted in the same week for any reason are not included in the computation of the weekly Indices. If such households are cleared by the independent validation system in another week in the same month then they are included in the estimation of monthly Indices. Usually 70 percent of the households surveyed in a particular week do get validated in the same week.
The weight assigned to each household is calculated as the ratio of the estimated number of households at the end of the week to the surveyed number of households for that week. For urban regions, it is the ratio of the estimated number of households in urban regions at the end of the week to the surveyed households in urban regions in the week. And for rural regions, it is the ratio of the estimated number of households in rural regions at the end of the week to the surveyed households in rural regions in the week.
The estimated number of households in the urban region at the end of the week is calculated by using the Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CARG) on the Census 2001-Census 2011 data for the urban households of India, compounded on a daily basis. Similarly, estimated number of households in rural region at the end of the week is calculated by using the Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CARG) on the Census 2001-Census 2011 data for the rural households of India, compounded on a daily basis.
Surveyed households in urban region in a week are households that are surveyed and accepted in that week. Similarly, surveyed households in rural region in a week are households that are surveyed and accepted in that week.
To calculate the indices, diffusion scores are obtained for each of the five questions. Diffusion score for each question is the percentage of households giving a favourable response minus the percentage of people giving an unfavourable response plus 100.
Calculation of diffusion scores for the jth stratum from a Week:

Diffusion score for Question 1= R1 =

R1examp

Diffusion score for Question 2 = R2 =

R2examp

Diffusion score for Question 3 = R3 =

R3examp

Diffusion score for Question 4 = R4 =

R4examp

Diffusion score for Question 5 = R5 =

R5examp

R5

Calculation of final indices for a Week:

The index is calculated as a sum of the diffusion scores divided by the base period index for the total sample, multiplied by 100. The round ended in December 2015 has been chosen as the base period.

  • Index of Consumer Sentiments(ICS) = R1_R2
  • Index of Consumer Expectations(ICE) = R1_R5
  • Index of Consumer Confidence(ICC) = R2_R3
The indices for urban and rural stratum are calculated in the same manner. However, the base period indices used are different.
For the calculation of indices for rural stratum, the base period indices are:

  • Index of Consumer Sentiments(ICS)=549
  • Index of Current Economic Conditions(ICC)=336
  • Index of Consumer Expectations(ICE)=213
The base period indices for the calculation of indices for the urban stratum are;
  • Index of Consumer Sentiments(ICC)=602
  • Index of Current Economic Conditions(ICC)=363
  • Index of Consumer Expectations(ICE)=239
Where,
  • R1 = Diffusion score obtained for QUESTION_No_1 of the Consumer Sentiment Survey
  • R2 = Diffusion score obtained for QUESTION_No_2 of the Consumer Sentiment Survey
  • R3 = Diffusion score obtained for QUESTION_No_3 of the Consumer Sentiment Survey
  • R4 = Diffusion score obtained for QUESTION_No_4 of the Consumer Sentiment Survey
  • R5 = Diffusion score obtained for QUESTION_No_5 of the Consumer Sentiment Survey