Round-wise Consumers Sentiment Indices

The Round-wise Consumer Sentiment Indices are computed at India level, at the homogenous region level, and for urban India and for rural India . The survey design for estimation of round-wise Indices for India is based on the existence of 196 strata. The population is stratified at the Homogenous region level and region-wise (rural and urban). Each of the 99 homogenous regions sampled in our survey are further classified into Rural and Urban regions. Chandigarh and Mumbai comprise only of the Urban strata. Thus, we have a total of 196 strata.
In computing the Consumer Sentiment Indices for the Round, we consider all the households in the sampling frame. The weight assigned to each household is calculated as the ratio of the estimated number of households at the end of the round to the sample number of households for that round. For urban regions, it is the ratio of the estimated number of households in the urban Homogenous region in the round to the sample households in that Homogenous region. And for rural region, it is the ratio of the estimated number of households in the rural Homogenous region in the round to the sample households in the Homogenous region.
The estimated number of households in an urban homogenous region for a round is calculated by using the Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CARG) on the Census 2001-Census 2011 data for the urban population of a homogenous region, compounded on a daily basis. Similarly, estimated number of households in rural homogenous region for a round is calculated by using the Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CARG) on the Census 2001-Census 2011 data for the rural population of a Homogenous region, compounded on a daily basis.
Sample households in urban Homogenous Region of a Round are all the urban households in the sampling frame of the round.
Sample households in rural homogenous region of a round are all the rural households in the sampling frame of the round. To calculate the indices, diffusion scores are obtained for each of the five questions. Diffusion score for each question is the percentage of households giving a favourable response minus the percentage of people giving an unfavourable response plus 100.

Calculation of diffusion scores for the jth stratum for a Round:
Diffusion score for Question 1= R1 =

R1examp

Diffusion score for Question 2 = R2 =

R2examp

Diffusion score for Question 3 = R3 =

R3examp

Diffusion score for Question 4 = R4 =

R4examp

Diffusion score for Question 5 = R5 =

R5examp

R5
Calculation of final indices for a Round:
The index is calculated as a sum of the diffusion scores divided by the base period index for the total sample multiplied by 100. The round ended in December 2015 has been chosen as the base period.
  • Index of Consumer Sentiments(ICS) = R1_R2
  • Index of Consumer Expectations(ICE) = R1_R5
  • Index of Consumer Confidence(ICC) = R2_R3
The indices for urban and rural stratum are calculated in the same manner. However, the base period indices used are different.
For the calculation of indices for rural stratum, the base period indices are:
  • Index of Consumer Sentiments(ICS)=549
  • Index of Current Economic Conditions(ICC)=336
  • Index of Consumer Expectations(ICE)=213
The base period indices for the calculation of indices for the urban stratum are;
  • Index of Consumer Sentiments(ICC)=602
  • Index of Current Economic Conditions(ICC)=363
  • Index of Consumer Expectations(ICE)=239
Where,
  • R1 = Diffusion score obtained for QUESTION_No_1 of the Consumer Sentiment Survey
  • R2 = Diffusion score obtained for QUESTION_No_2 of the Consumer Sentiment Survey
  • R3 = Diffusion score obtained for QUESTION_No_3 of the Consumer Sentiment Survey
  • R4 = Diffusion score obtained for QUESTION_No_4 of the Consumer Sentiment Survey
  • R5 = Diffusion score obtained for QUESTION_No_5 of the Consumer Sentiment Survey