Monthly Consumers Sentiment Indices

The monthly Consumer Sentiment Indices are computed at India and at the state level and for urban and for rural India. The survey design for estimation of monthly Indices for India is based on the existence of 47 strata. The population is stratified at the state level and region-wise (rural and urban). Each of the 25 states sampled in our survey is further classified into Rural and Urban regions. Chandigarh comprises only of the Urban stratum. Thus, we have In computing the Consumer Sentiment Indices for a month, we consider all the households in the sampling frame for the month. The weight assigned to each household is calculated as the ratio of the estimated number of households at the end of the month to the sample number of households for that month. For towns, it is the ratio of the estimated number of households in the State at the end of the month to the sample households in that State in the month. And for villages, it is the ratio of the estimated number of households in the State at the end of the month to the sample households in that State in the month.
The estimated number of households in the urban region of a State at the end of the month is calculated by using the Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CARG) on the Census 2001-Census 2011 data for the urban households of the State, compounded on a daily basis. Similarly, estimated number of households in rural region of a State at the end of the month is calculated by using the Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CARG) on the Census 2001-Census 2011 data for the rural households of the State, compounded on a daily basis.
Sample households in urban region of a State in a month are households that are scheduled to be surveyed in that month. Similarly, sample households in rural region of a State in a month are households that are scheduled to be surveyed in that month.
To calculate the indices, diffusion scores are obtained for each of the five questions. Diffusion score for each question is the percentage of households giving a favourable response minus the percentage of people giving an unfavourable response plus 100.

Calculation of diffusion scores for the jth stratum from a Month:

Diffusion scores for Question1 = R1 =

R1examp

Diffusion score for Question 2 = R2 =

R2examp

Diffusion score for Question 3 = R3 =

R3examp

Diffusion score for Question 4 = R4 =

R4examp

Diffusion score for Question 5 = R5 =

R5examp

R5

Calculation of final indices for a Month:
The index is calculated as a sum of the diffusion scores divided by the base period index for the total sample, multiplied by 100. The round ended in December 2015 has been chosen as the base period.
  • Index of Consumer Sentiments(ICS)= R1_R2
  • Index of Current Economic Conditions(ICC)= R1_R5
  • Index of Consumer Expectations(ICE)= R2_R3
The indices for urban and rural stratum are calculated in the same manner. However, the base period indices used are different.
For the calculation of indices for rural stratum, the base period indices are:
  • Index of Consumer Sentiments(ICS) = 549
  • Index of Current Economic Conditions(ICC) = 336
  • Index of Consumer Expectations(ICE) = 213
The base period indices for the calculation of indices for the urban stratum are:
  • Index of Consumer Sentiments(ICC) = 602
  • Index of Current Economic Conditions(ICC) = 363
  • Index of Consumer Expectations(ICE) = 239
Where
  • R1 = Diffusion score obtained for QUESTION_No_1 of the Consumer Sentiment Survey
  • R2 = Diffusion score obtained for QUESTION_No_2 of the Consumer Sentiment Survey
  • R3 = Diffusion score obtained for QUESTION_No_3 of the Consumer Sentiment Survey
  • R4 = Diffusion score obtained for QUESTION_No_4 of the Consumer Sentiment Survey
  • R5 = Diffusion score obtained for QUESTION_No_5 of the Consumer Sentiment Survey